The Billion-Dollar Promise Meets a Credibility Test

Retail media networks did not become one of the fastest-growing channels in advertising by accident. They offered something marketers were increasingly desperate for in a post-cookie world: first-party shopper data, contextual proximity to purchase, and the seductive promise of measurable performance. For brands struggling to prove value across fragmented digital channels, the logic was irresistible. Show up at the digital shelf, influence the moment of decision, and watch ROAS climb.

Yet the very speed of adoption has created a credibility problem. As spending accelerates and projections inch toward nearly $100 billion globally in the coming years, the conversation is shifting from excitement to scrutiny. Marketers are beginning to ask a harder question: are these platforms genuinely driving new demand, or are they simply taking credit for purchases that would have happened anyway?

This tension is now surfacing in boardrooms, budget negotiations, and media planning cycles, where finance teams increasingly want evidence of incrementality rather than another polished dashboard.

Why Good-Looking ROAS is no Longer Persuasive

For years, digital advertising relied on proxies for success. Clicks, impressions, view-through conversions, and last-touch attribution created the appearance of accountability while often obscuring reality. Retail media inherited many of these dynamics, even as it promised a more commerce-centric model.

The challenge is structural. A significant majority of retail purchases still happen in physical stores, yet most retail media reporting remains rooted in digital environments. Even when platforms can show a correlation between exposure and conversion, correlation is not causation. Serving an ad to someone who was already planning to buy does not prove influence; it simply proves visibility.

As budgets scale, this distinction becomes existential. Marketers are under pressure not just to show performance, but to prove that their investments are generating incremental growth rather than recycling existing demand. The industry’s credibility now hinges on whether it can evolve from attribution theater to causal evidence.

The Rise of Commerce Media Beyond the Retailer’s Walls

This is where the concept of commerce media begins to stretch beyond traditional retail networks. Commerce is no longer confined to retailer-owned properties; it flows through banking apps, travel platforms, loyalty programs, delivery ecosystems, and digital wallets. The customer journey is not linear, and neither are transactions.

Mastercard’s entry into this space, through its broader commerce media network, reflects a growing belief that single-retailer ecosystems are structurally limited. A retailer can show what happens inside its own environment, but it cannot see the full picture of consumer behavior across categories, channels, and contexts. By tying ad exposure to actual transactions, both online and in-store, across a wider network, Mastercard is positioning itself as a measurement layer rather than just another media owner.

The strategic bet is clear: whoever can credibly connect exposure to real-world outcomes at scale will own the definition of truth in commerce media. That is not just a data play; it is a power shift.

Incrementality Becomes the New Currency

What advertisers increasingly want is not more granular targeting, but more defensible evidence. Incrementality testing, control groups, and transaction-confirmed outcomes are moving from “nice to have” to essential. The language of marketing performance is beginning to resemble the language of experimentation, economics, and financial accountability.

This is why claims around closed-loop measurement and card-linked attribution resonate so strongly. If exposure can be connected to verified transactions, and if those outcomes can be compared against credible control populations, the industry finally moves from storytelling to science. The promise is not better optimization alone, but restored trust between buyers and platforms.

That trust deficit is real. Many brands have learned, sometimes painfully, that performance channels often look best when they are least challenged. The more sophisticated advertisers become, the more they interrogate the methodology behind the numbers. Commerce media’s next phase will be shaped less by scale and more by methodological rigor.

Why Intermediaries are Suddenly in Favor

The growing attention around intermediaries reflects a deeper strategic realization. Retail media networks are powerful, but they are inherently biased toward their own ecosystems. Their incentives are to maximize spend and demonstrate success within their walls. Intermediaries, by contrast, are positioning themselves as connective tissue across ecosystems, offering a broader vantage point on consumer behavior and outcomes.

For brands operating across multiple retailers, multiple verticals, and both online and offline channels, this perspective is increasingly attractive. A measurement framework that spans banks, airlines, merchants, and publishers speaks directly to the fragmented reality of modern commerce. It also offers something many advertisers feel they have lost: a consistent, comparable understanding of performance across partners.

The appeal is not just scale. It is coherence.

The Accountability Era of Commerce Media

The industry is now entering what could be described as the accountability era. Retail media will continue to grow, but growth alone will no longer be enough. Platforms will be judged by their ability to withstand scrutiny, explain their methodologies, and demonstrate causal impact rather than convenient correlation.

This shift will reshape budgets. Dollars will increasingly follow platforms that can prove incrementality, not just promise performance. Measurement standards will become a competitive differentiator. And advertisers will start treating commerce media not as an experimental channel but as a financial investment that must stand up to rigorous evaluation.

The deeper implication is cultural. Marketing is being pulled closer to the logic of finance and analytics, where belief is replaced by evidence and where trust must be earned through transparency. The winners in commerce media will not be those with the loudest promises, but those with the clearest proof.